For pro-Europeans in Britain the last six months have been devastating. For a while, after the 23rd June referendum, there was a feeling of disbelief and defiance. Tens of thousands took to the streets. We said Brexit would never happen. We waited in vain for opinion polls to show public regret. But slowly we have been forced to accept that the UK really will leave the EU.
At once, we are being forced to mourn for something we cherish, which we have not yet lost; and to fight for the best possible future for the UK outside the EU, even though we believe it is the wrong course for our country.
Since the start of the year Brexit has started to become reality. This week the UK’s most senior court ruled on the constitutional process for triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, leaving the way clear for the divorce procedure to begin in March. A few days before, Theresa May, our new prime minister, set out her aspirations for Brexit in a long speech which provided more detail than expected but fell well short of a specific plan.
Mrs May’s tone was mainly warm towards Britain’s European partners, but she definitively announced that the UK would seek to withdraw from the internal market and the customs union. In their place she called for a new economic partnership, which sounded like some fusion of the EU’s agreements with Canada and Turkey.
If she gets what she wants, such an agreement might prevent the worst of the economic harm Brexit is expected to bring to the UK. But for that to happen a deal will need to ensure that the City of London remains integrated within the European banking system; and that UK-EU supply chains are not just tariff-free but unencumbered by onerous border controls.
In the speech May said that, in the event of it being impossible to negotiate a satisfactory agreement, her fall-back position would be for the UK to trade with the EU under the rules of the World Trade Organisation. This might be mildly disruptive for remaining EU members (for example, it could heighten the risks facing vulnerable banks, as their access to capital reduces). By contrast, it would be catastrophic for British businesses, and it is extraordinary that a centre-right prime minister is seriously considering it.
May also said that, if there is no deal, she would slash taxes and regulation to lure inward investment from the continent. This was an extraordinarily ill-judged threat, considering that the EU will have far more power than the UK in the negotiations to come and Britain will have to rely on its goodwill. And as a threat it lacks credibility, because the policy would destroy the UK’s social model, something May does not have the domestic support to deliver.
Economists are almost universally agreed that membership of the EEA would be much better for the UK than a ‘hard’ Brexit on WTO terms, until any new deal is done. That the prime minister will not even consider this option shows just how far the populist right has captured the British political debate. May’s view is that membership of the internal market breaches the two implied mandates of the ‘leave’ victory – to ‘take back control’ of migration policy and the rule of law.
Even social democrats need to acknowledge, however, that membership of the EEA is not a long-term solution for Britain. It would work fine as an interim measure for 5 or 6 years, while a new economic relationship is being negotiated. But no British government – of right or left – would accept being a member of a market in which it could not share in shaping the rules. In the long-term the UK needs to be further ‘in’ or further ‘out’ than Norway.
Further ‘in’ would mean the UK becoming some sort of ‘associate’ EU member, with influence over legislation. That might once have been an option, when the UK was a member of the club, as part of a slow evolution towards a two-speed Europe. But after the referendum there is zero chance of it happening. It would be impossible in the context of the UK’s increasingly toxic politics. But more importantly, it would be totally unacceptable for the remaining member states. Pro-Europeans in Britain understand why the rest of Europe must make being outside the EU worse than being inside.
Theresa May has now set out her preferred vision for Brexit. It is now for the EU to respond and it has all the power in these negotiations. The union would be perfectly within its rights to refuse any privileged economic relationship for Britain: ‘the only real alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit’ as Donal Tusk has put it. There would be economic fallout, but the EU would suffer far less than the UK.
However, hard Brexit would be a tragedy for British social democrats and everyone else who wants the UK to be open and integrated with the rest of Europe. For example, if the free movement of workers between Britain and mainland Europe must come to an end, it would be far better to negotiate some form of privileged migration status between the UK and EU, than for the two blocs to treat their citizens on the same basis as people from the rest of the world.
So, when the UK makes requests for continuing partnership and integration, we hope that our friends in the rest of Europe will not push us away. It would set the final seal on this populist calamity, if our European family says we cannot have even a partial partnership, in the wake of this terrible divorce.
No breakthrough for women’s representation in Ireland’s 2024 general election
Find all related Magazine
Magazine
#Issue 26Progressive Post
#Issue 26
Brace for impact
#Issue 25Progressive Post
#Issue 25
EU 2024: the unpredictable well-known
Issue #24Progressive Post
Issue #24
The future is social
XThis website uses cookies. Some cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of the website and cannot be refused if you wish to visit the website.
Other cookies are used for Advertisement and Analytics (Sharing on social networks, video playing, analysis and statistics, personalized advertising ...) You can refuse them if you want to. REJECTACCEPTCookie settings
Manage consent
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
Cookie
Duration
Description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement
1 year
Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category .
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional
11 months
The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
csrftoken
past
This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks
JSESSIONID
session
The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application.
viewed_cookie_policy
11 months
The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Cookie
Duration
Description
__cf_bm
30 minutes
This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management.
S
1 hour
Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics.
sp_landing
1 day
The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content.
sp_t
1 year
The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Cookie
Duration
Description
CONSENT
2 years
YouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data.
iutk
session
This cookie is used by Issuu analytic system to gather information regarding visitor activity on Issuu products.
s_vi
2 years
An Adobe Analytics cookie that uses a unique visitor ID time/date stamp to identify a unique vistor to the website.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Cookie
Duration
Description
NID
6 months
NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE
5 months 27 days
A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface.
YSC
session
YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages.
yt-remote-connected-devices
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt-remote-device-id
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt.innertube::nextId
never
This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.
yt.innertube::requests
never
This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.