The Social Democrats are back

The main message of Germany’s elections on 26 September is: the Social Democrats are back. […]

30/09/2021

The main message of Germany’s elections on 26 September is: the Social Democrats are back. The whole Scandinavian North and the German middle of the European continent will have a Social Democratic head of government. Only a few months ago, nobody would have expected that, except Olaf Scholz himself, who predicted that with the return from holidays, the German population will understand that the fight is about who will be the chancellor after 16 years of Angela Merkel and that this would result in rising confidence in him and his party. 

This is exactly what happened: during the campaign, there were weeks in which Annalena Baerbock, the Green candidate for the chancellery, and her party lead the polls. There were also weeks in which Armin Laschet, her conservative counterpart, and his party, headed the polls, whereas the Social Democrats seem to be stuck at below 15 per cent for a long time. In August, however, this changed rapidly. It is obvious that Scholz’s high competence values in the poll as well as his demure self-confidence played an important role. 

What I have said so far is quite obvious, but there are also hidden, less obvious messages of the results of the elections: for the first time in many years, the Social Democrats won back their traditional electorate of blue-collar workers whereas the extreme left lost it. Only two per cent of those possessing a low formal education voted for the leftist party, Die Linke. The SPD won 1,5 million voters from the conservative party, notwithstanding the constant warnings from conservatives and managers that the party could be tempted to form a leftist government coalition after the elections, one that includes not only the Greens, but also Die Linke. At the same time, the Social Democrats won 600,000 votes from the left, thereby pushing Die Linke below the 5 per cent threshold. This shows that it is possible to win from the right and the left at the same time, with a convincing candidate and a convincing programme focused on social justice and stability.

The election result also shows that the Social Democratic success depends heavily on Olaf Scholz at the moment. Polls show that almost 50 per cent of SPD voters elected their party because of the candidate. The message is: the rise of the SPD is still unstable. The path to becoming the leading political force, embracing good parts of the population in lower income groups as well as among those who care about technological progress, global responsibility, and climate change will be long and challenging – depending largely on the performance of future government lead by the SPD.

Find all related publications
Publications
07/07/2023

Leading the way

Lessons for Labour from Europe
29/06/2023

The social democratic parties in the Visegrád countries

Predicaments and prospects for progressivism
17/05/2023

Prospects for a Keir Starmer premiership

What he can achieve and what obstacles stand in his way
11/05/2023

Next Left Vol. 14

Crisis and progressive politics: How to make hard choices and succeed?
Find all related events
Events
Upcoming
26/10/2023
Brussels, Belgium (Hybrid)

The rise of political entrepreneurs in Europe

Next Left lecture IV
Past
18 - 20/09/2023
FEPS HQ

FEPS Annual Autumn Academy 2023

Beyond 2024
01/07/2023
Dąbrowa Górnicza, Poland

Intergenerational solidarity

Challenges for Social Democracy series
Find all related news
News
23/06/2023

Call for tender – research and project coordination

Basic Information Project Can the European progressive centre left gain voters from populist right parties […]
23/05/2023

Open Progressive University

FEPS launches first e-learning platform for Social Democrats
16/05/2022

Siena conference on the Future of Europe

The event was held on the 26-27-28th May at the Certosa di Pontignano, Siena (Italy). […]
16/04/2022

Solidarity between generations strengthens democracy

It is time to empower Europe’s younger and older generations to fully participate in democracy […]
Find all related in the media
In the media

Ocidente em minoria ou reforma da governação global?

by Público 08/06/2023
'West in minority or global governance reform?' In Público's article, FEPS President Maria João Rodrigues explains the importance of reforming the actual global governance system

Sluta tro att SD-männen bara skojar om politiken

by AFTONBLADET 30/05/2023
'Stop thinking that the SD men are just joking about politics. When changes happen, they happen at lightning speed' Ania Skrzypek interviewed in this Swedish article about the Polish case

Polacy nieufni i “wyjątkowi” – “popandemiczne” badanie w UE

by TOK FM 22/05/2023
'Poles distrustful and "exceptional" - "post-pandemic" survey in the EU' TOK FM. Interview with Ania Skrzypek, FEPS Director for Research and Training, about the results of FEPS' European survey in six EU countries and the 'uniqueness' of the responses of the Polish people.

‘No one is unemployable’: the French social experiment

by EUobserver 21/03/2023
EUobserver article on unemployment in the EU with a mention to FEPS' policy brief 'A Job Guarantee for Europe.'