What Trump’s Victory means for Africa

Donald Trump’s victory came as a shock to democrats in Africa. They had held up […]

10/01/2017

Donald Trump’s victory came as a shock to democrats in Africa. They had held up the American political system as a paragon of democracy and can’t understand how this candidate is appealing to an American electorate.

Africans expect something better from a “first-world” country and a population that is better educated than the majority in Africa. At a time when the commitment of African leaders to democracy and good governance is faltering, African democrats will now have a tougher fight for more democracy and against racism. It is unsurprising that some of the continent’s questionable leaders rushed to congratulate the president elect. Zimbabwe’s state-owned Herald newspaper rejoiced in the defeat of the “warmonger” Hillary Clinton.
However, very little is known about Trump’s position on Africa. The continent just seems not to be on his radar because he is an insular president focused on US interests. This means that Africa is looking towards an uncertain future in its relationship with the new president. But based on his remarks during his election campaign, Africa needs to worry. Trump believes that trade deals are weighted against the US. The new administration may revise the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which is designed to give African countries easier access to US markets by scrapping import duties on certain goods. Under the act exports from Africa to the US have now reached $4.1 billion, which makes it a vital economic lifeline for the continent.

Reduction of foreign aid

Trump is not a fan of foreign aid. He may reduce America’s extensive aid programme. Left-leaning US donors provide wide-ranging grants to African NGOs. These funds are likely to be reduced or re-directed to conservative organisations.A reduction of aid to and trade with Africa would automatically increase China’s influence in Africa. Trump has pledged to make the US “great” again. This may override his isolationist tendencies and convince him to increase US support for Africa. Republican presidents have always been more prone to intervention. He will likely follow this line not just as far as trade and aid is concerned but especially with regard to the “War on Terror”. Based on his Islamophobic tendencies he has said he would allow torture and wants to keep Guantanamo Bay open. One has to fear that the “War on Terror” will be intensified with increased collateral damage and less thought given to the protection of human rights.

A hard-line “War on Terror” combined with his rhetoric attacks on Muslims could become the most effective recruiting tool for terrorists across the globe, and in Africa for Boko Haram and Al Shabab. His promised tough tactics in the “War of Terror” wouldprobably be counterproductive: studies show that abuses committed against civilians are likely to push people towards terrorism.

It is feared that the new administration would sabotage the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and similar strategies to solve global climate problems. This would have long-term catastrophic consequences for Africa because its small scale farmers are hardest hit by drying soils.

South Africa and other African countries just formally withdrew from the International Criminal Court by notifying the United Nations. They claim the court is biased against Africa. How can the US now oppose such a move when it is not a signatory to the Rome Statute that created the international court and when its leader wants to maintain Guantanamo Bay?

Minority rights

Most African leaders do not support gay rights. Some countries like Uganda even persecute homosexuals. Even South Africa voted to scrap a United Nations gay rights watchdog. An American administration under the leadership of a man who is openly opposed to gay marriage certainly will not try hard to stop this trend. Life for gays in Africa will become more difficult.African states were created by colonial powers with little regard for tribes and ethnic compositions. African leaders have to deal with these complex foundations to build coherent nations. This can only be done by being conciliatory and open for compromise. Policies along tribal lines and confrontation are bound to lead to internal conflicts. Those African leaders who base their policies on populist tribal interests and on exclusiveness may feel encouraged by Trump’s victory.

The moral compass lost its bearing. It suits most African leaders to have at the top of the most powerful country in the world a man who thinks along their lines of populism and autocratic rule. It is the time for progressive movements and civil societies in Africa to keep the idea of democracy and good governance alive. In such a situation it would not make sense to look for help from autocratic leaders of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). Rather, the European Union could serve as a model, a union that is based on democracy, multilateralism and solidarity across borders and ethnic lines. In that respect the EU has much in common with African states; both have to be based on compromise and rejection of exclusiveness. Will the EU be able to fill this role?

Find all related publications
Publications
21/09/2023

A European Health Union

A blueprint for generations
18/09/2023

Making trade work for prosperity, people and planet

FEPS Primers series - Arancha González and Yanis Bourgeois
14/09/2023

SDGs for all: Strategic scenarios

Earth4All system dynamics modelling of SDG progress
07/09/2023

European perceptions of public programmes for zero unemployment

Online survey and qualitative interviews: The results
Find all related news
News
20/09/2023

FEPS is recruiting 1 project officer

Notice of vacancy
14/09/2023

FEPS President at the SDG Summit and United Nations General Assembly in New York

FEPS President Maria João Rodrigues is in New York this week on the occasion of […]
14/09/2023

Call for tender – Researcher on inflation

Basic Information Project    The profits-prices spiral: measures to avoid inflation  Partners   TASC (Ireland), Pietro Nenni Foundation (Italy)  […]
12/09/2023

Call for tender – Research and analysis for the project “Progressive paths to rebuild Ukraine”

Basic Information Project Research “In search of a ‘lost generation’. Harnessing youth potential for post-war […]
Find all related in the media
In the media

‘SDG funding gap swells to $137trn’ New Policy Study from FEPS, together with Earth4All, to deliver a five-point plan for the SDGs.

by Edie 19/09/2023
The “SDGs for All” report emphasises that policymakers have the potential to significantly advance SDG implementation by the original 2030 deadline and beyond by enacting five “extraordinary turnarounds” that break away from current trends.

“Trade doesn’t work in isolation from good domestic policies” Interview to Arancha González

by Borderlex 19/09/2023
Interview to Arancha González, former Spanish foreign minister, who released together with FEPS the new book entitled 'The Trade Handbook: Making Trade Work for Prosperity, People and Planet'

AI to ‘determine course of global trade, jobs’ in near future

by The Financial Express 14/09/2023
The Financial Express's article focuses on the publication of FEPS Primer on Trade written by Arancha González Laya and Yanis Bourgeois

Un nuevo informe de prospectiva identifica las medidas políticas urgentes necesarias para volver a encarrilar los ODS

by Cope 14/09/2023
'New foresight report identifies urgent policy measures needed to get the SDGs back on track' Cope's article on the policy study 'SDGs for all: Strategic scenarios', published in collaboration with Earth4All