David KITCHING

Managing Director of Bassline Strategy, an advocacy and research agency based in Dublin and International Secretary of the Irish Labour Party and Vice-Chair of the P&PR Branch of the National Union of Journalists

Ireland’s apparent stability and continuity lie atop a landscape of public apathy and a political system engaged in a vigorous dance. In a multipolar parliament, surprisingly few options exist for the continuing government. Competition and coordination among the rest will make for more interesting viewing.

One could be forgiven for thinking that Ireland stands as an outlier in this great year of elections. As incumbent governments fall worldwide, the two centre-right parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael look set to retain power. Amid a backdrop of two years of far-right street agitation, reaching its crescendo in the 2023 Dublin riots, there is a deceptive calm falling on Irish democracy, and explicitly nativist parties have failed to break through. Yet reading between the lines, we see a political system in flux. 

As adversaries, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael alternated in power for a century, and their combined vote used to regularly exceed 80 per cent. As allies, they increasingly behave like separate factions of a single party, their policy platforms differing more in focus than in substance and are now unable to reach a Dáil (parliament) majority without a third partner. They are falling back into government together on the back of public apathy and a lack of a viable alternative majority. We watch them embark on a merry dance, pretending to negotiate with one another, but their proximity to power leaves them limited in the choices they can make. 

Sinn Féin is the other ‘big beast’. The party could, in theory, form a government with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, but the latter cite unreconcilable policy differences and prefer collaborating with one another. Sinn Féin’s voter base is a complicated mix of left-populists, younger progressives and right-leaning nationalists. They are among the voters with the lowest levels of trust in public institutions, and the party stood to gain more than others from adopting anti-immigrant positions. Sinn Féin initially showed leadership in advocating a more progressive outlook, and its support grew rapidly during the last parliament, embedding a narrative that offered the only real vehicle of change.  

The far-right surge wrongfooted Sinn Féin strategists. Popularity brought the unexpected disadvantage of being perceived as the establishment, while ethno-nationalists targeted communities where they were strongest. The leadership floundered and its messaging began to appease hostile positions to immigrants. On other wedge issues, such as hate speech legislation, Sinn Féin adopted more reactionary positions, and advocated clearly contradictory views on climate action. Recent controversies brought a further decline which was only arrested towards the end of the election campaign. Sinn Féin returns as the second-largest party and has a lot of unfulfilled potential. Too late in the day, they have called for a ‘coalition of the left’, when the numbers simply do not exist to deliver it. The party has increased in numerical influence but is comparatively less powerful and has fewer options than it once had. 

By contrast with the big three, the remaining parliamentarians have limited power but hold some options for increasing their influence. Ireland’s system generates many non-party and micro-party politicians we shall call ‘independents and others’. They are ideologically amorphous, ranging from left to right, and many focus on a narrow range of local concerns through patronage clientelism. 

Among a small number of this group, the run-up to this election saw candidates adopt elements of the far-right playbook in their local campaigning. They have the luxury of employing reactionary rhetoric for a populist appeal without the negative labelling of a far-right party, and some have used this effectively. While lacking a strong programme, they have the potential to influence a shift in mainstream opinion towards a harsher stance on immigration, ‘culture war’ issues and the imperatives of climate action. It is increasingly likely that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will seek the support of a number of independents to reach a parliamentary majority. 

The remaining pole comprises the centre-left parties: the Green Party, the Labour Party and the Social Democrats. The Greens were the third party in the outgoing coalition and returned with just one remaining representative. The larger parties behaved ruthlessly in scapegoating the Greens for public dissatisfaction, and the electorate duly punished them, a fate that previously befell the Labour Party after the 2011-2016 government. This election saw Labour finally stabilise and advance after eight difficult years. The party consolidated in key constituencies has seen the election of seven new TDs (Teachta Dála – members of the Irish parliament) and a reinvigorated membership. The Social Democrats are the newest member of this club. Formed by former Labour members and left-wing independents in 2015, it competes in the same electoral space as Labour. The relationship between the parties is complicated, with a mix of old hurts and resentments along with common causes and surviving personal friendships. 

Before the election, Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik said that her first port of call would be to meet with like-minded parties of the left and environmental movement to form a common progressive platform. While the numerical outcome does not make this bloc an attractive third partner for the centre-right incumbents, it does still offer opportunities to these parties themselves. The option remains for an individual party to join that coalition, although this looks increasingly unlikely. 

Sinn Féin has made overtures to the progressive bloc to form a common left platform, but its prevarication on immigration has undermined trust in its positioning, especially among the younger progressive elements of its base. By contrast, the Labour Party, Social Democrats and the Green Party have all held the line for a more openly humanitarian outlook, doubling down on decency and having common causes in the means to address social inequalities. The sands are certainly shifting in Irish politics. The direction of these shifts is guided by the choices made by those not yet in power.

Photo credits: Shutterstock.com/LiamMurphyPics