27/11/2025
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, over 80 countries are finally ready to discuss a concrete and just roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. However, in the absence of consensus, this year’s COP30 in Brazil ended without any substantial progress towards a global just transition. Yet, some promises of action outside of the COP framework were made.
The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), commonly known as COP, is famous for its extensive use of jargon, whether picking up existing concepts or developing its own expressions and acronyms. Ever heard of loss and damage, CBDR-RC, Global Stocktake, article 9.1 or NCQG? Probably not, unless you are a climate geek. The Brazilian presidency even launched its own special expression this year – mutirão – to convey the importance of joining forces in a major global effort for climate action.
The relatively well-established, yet fuzzy, concept of just transition was first mentioned in the context of international climate negotiations at COP16 in 2010. It found its way into the official COP lexicon in 2015, with the preamble of the Paris Agreement stating that the Parties take “into account the imperatives of a just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance with nationally defined development priorities”. The international momentum around a just transition has continued to build, and a Just Transition Work Programme was established at COP27 in 2022 . A year later, COP28 ended with a key, and long-overdue, achievement: the first direct reference to “transition away from fossil fuels”in a COP outcome document.
The Paris Agreement reflected the original narrow meaning of ‘just transition’, focusing on protecting workers and jobs. However, with the influence of COP28, the concept ‘just transition’ is also increasingly used to refer to the overall process of phasing out fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner, seeking to protect all vulnerable people and taking into consideration the specific situations of countries. Many countries from the Global South and civil society, women and Indigenous groups have been advocating for this broader and more international approach, highlighting the need to integrate just transition principles into all relevant UNFCCC processes and to respect human rights and the rights of local communities and Indigenous people.
This year, with the Brazilian presidency making just transition one of its priorities, COP30 felt like the ‘just transition COP’ to many and expectations were high. To achieve real progress on the global just transition, an essential first step is to translate the mandate to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ into a credible and concrete roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Indeed, countries must define clear end-dates for the production and use of fossil fuels, aligned with scientific assessments to stay as close as possible to a 1.5 degree warming and anchored in the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDR-RC). For example, OECD countries should at least commit to the following phase-out timeline: coal by 2030, fossil gas by 2035 and oil by 2040. In a welcome and unprecedented move, a group of over 80 countries announced their support for a Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF) roadmap at COP30. While the roadmap was not included in the final COP30 decision due to the opposition of the usual countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia etc.), the Brazilian COP30 president, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, still announced his intention to move forward with a roadmap outside of the UNFCCC process. Colombia and the Netherlands will also co-host the first international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in April 2026.
Another step to support a global just transition is the creation of a platform, mechanism or other institutional arrangement to coordinate just transition efforts, support the inclusive design and implementation of national just transition plans, share knowledge and best practices, build capacity and match projects with appropriate funding. The idea has been circulating among many civil society groups. For example, FEPS and the Brazilian think tank Plataforma CIPÓ proposed a Just Transition Match-Making Facility. In the halls of COP30, the Climate Action Network was advocating for the adoption of a Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) for a Global Just Transition to “address the current fragmentation and inadequacy of global Just Transition efforts”. During the two weeks of negotiations, different countries expressed support for the creation of a Just Transition Mechanism. The adopted text on the mechanism constitutes an essential step forward to improve coordination and implementation and better acknowledge human rights.
Overall, did COP30 manage to reach an outcome that reflects the emergency of the climate crisis? The answer is a definite no. The ‘Global Mutirão’ decision is, for the most part, an empty document without any reference to fossil fuels. Nevertheless, as imperfect and frustrating as they are, the COP meetings and negotiations are essential to maintain a multilateral dialogue and engagement on climate, even with the most reluctant countries. Small victories were achieved, and the emergence of a coalition of the willing for a fossil fuel roadmap is an encouraging sign. Images of Indigenous people protesting for their rights, of civil society advocating for action and of countries showing ambition need to stay with us until the next COP and remind us of the essential: the ultimate goal is to protect people.
Photo credits: © UN Climate Change – Zô Guimarães
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Find all related Progressive Post
Progressive Post
