Never before have tariffs garnered such intense public attention. And what was unimaginable in the past – that the fiercest assault on free trade would come from the US, long considered the stronger defender of free markets and laissez-faire principles – has become reality. In addition, US President Trump’s new stance frames the EU as an adversary or even an enemy. Tariffs are now seen as a necessary evil to correct trade imbalances and revive domestic production.
Ironically, the very oligarchs who cheered the US president only a few months ago, now tremble at massive market losses, lobbying fiercely to stall his tariff agenda. More than external pressure from (former?) allies like the EU and Canada, it is this internal backlash that has temporarily frozen Trump’s tariff plans. But this delay may prove only strategic: the goal of reshoring supply chains does not necessarily require immediate tariffs – the mere threat can spur companies to build factories on US soil. By postponing implementation, the administration buys time for relocation, ensuring that when the tariffs finally strike, they disrupt a smaller slice of the value chain. US imports can, therefore, contract before the tariffs enter into force.
Who will win the fight on trade diversion? Who will win the global restructuring of supply chains? And more importantly, is the EU ready to stand its ground? In this high-stakes game of big announcements, the madness has a method: to impact the economy and investment flows, expectations are as powerful as policies themselves. For this dossier, the Progressive Post has gathered outlooks on the future of international trade, and the opportunities that might be there for the EU to seize.
Photo credits: Shutterstock.com/MikeDotta
