Chairperson of the Board, Head of African Futures & Innovation, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria
Research officer, African Futures & Innovation Program, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria
23/10/2024
Regarding demographics, the stories of Europe and Africa are like night and day – vastly different but potentially complementary. Like supply and demand, one is not possible without the other. The EU’s total population is declining (from 444 million in 2024, likely to around 408 million in 2050), meaning that many towns and cities, particularly in more rural areas are slowly depopulating. Demand for housing in rural areas is declining where schools have to close, and hospitals shut down given the absence of a large enough user base. On the other hand, Africa is in the midst of a demographic boom. The continent’s population is expected to double by 2050 to 2.5 billion, and the demand for education and health facilities increases exponentially each year.
While the portion of working-age persons in Europe is declining, that in Africa will increase from 57 per cent in 2024 to 62 per cent in 2050. Actual numbers are much larger – an increase from 854 million to 1.6 billion people aged 15 to 64 years. This presents Africa with a potential demographic dividend, where the working-age population outnumbers dependents, creating conditions conducive to economic growth. If harnessed effectively, this worker bulge could offer significant potential for Africa’s development although the provision of education, healthcare and jobs lags behind. The African Development Bank estimates that 10-12 million young people enter the labour market yearly, but only 3 million formal jobs are created. This means millions of young Africans are at risk of being unemployed or underemployed, which can fuel economic frustrations, as witnessed in the youth protests that demanded an end to corruption and service delivery in Uganda, Kenya and Nigeria during July 2024. The result of this, and other factors, is the large-scale movement of people from one African country to another in search of opportunity and substance.
On the other hand, Europe’s ageing population raises concerns about labour shortages. Its median age is expected to rise from a little over 45 years today to almost 50 by 2050 – that is the age at which half the population is younger and the other half older than the median. The portion of the EU’s population considered to be of working age is declining (from 63 per cent of the total population to 56 per cent), while the portion in the age bracket of 65 years and above is growing – from 99 million in 2024 to 125 million in 2050.
With fewer workers relative to retirees, the dependency ratio (the ratio of non-working dependents to the working population) will rise. A higher dependency ratio means a larger proportion of the population is economically dependent, which will strain social welfare systems and reduce economic growth. The economic implications of this are quite severe: as more people retire, fewer taxes will be collected, while government health spending on more expensive non-communicable diseases and on pensions will increase.
In contrast to Africa’s large labour surplus, Europe will experience significant shortages in the coming decades, with sectors such as healthcare and many lower-skilled manufacturing and services sectors struggling to find sufficient workers. According to Business Europe, the European Union will experience a worker shortfall of approximately 35 million by 2050. Artificial intelligence can do many things, but it cannot care for the elderly, sweep streets or undertake the myriad of menial jobs that Europeans cannot (sometimes will not) do.
Urbanisation is another notable trend shaping Africa’s future. Africa is urbanising rapidly, with its urban population growth being the fastest globally. Each year, urban Africa grows by an estimated 20 million people. By 2030, that number will be close to 25 million annually. By then, Africa will host six of the world’s 41 megacities: Cairo, Lagos, Kinshasa, Johannesburg, Luanda and Dar es Salaam will have more than 10 million inhabitants each, and 17 African cities will have a population of more than five million each. Urbanisation can drive economic growth and development but also challenges infrastructure, housing, healthcare and social services. If Africa’s cities cannot accommodate the influx of people, the benefits of urbanisation could be offset by congestion, inequality and social unrest.
Time will tell how the demand for labour in the EU will level out with Africa’s surplus – but if the past is an indication, the future is likely to see them complement one another, like the day complements the night.
Photo credits: Shutterstock.com/Santos Akhilele Aburime
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