Laury HAYTAYAN

MENA director, Natural Resource Governance Institute

The current energy crisis is not only reshaping global oil and gas markets, but it is also forcing Gulf countries to rethink how and where they invest in energy infrastructure. The shock of the Strait of Hormuz closure has exposed the vulnerability of relying on a single strategic chokepoint for Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas exports. The longer-term implications may fundamentally reshape energy cooperation between the Gulf and the Mediterranean.

For Mediterranean countries, particularly on the southern shore, the consequences of the crisis could be mixed. Many economies in North Africa and the Levant depend directly or indirectly on Gulf investments, remittances and financial support. If Gulf economies suffer prolonged losses from disrupted exports or falling revenues, these financial flows could weaken, affecting already fragile economies across the Mediterranean. Yet the crisis could also create new opportunities. Gulf countries are increasingly likely to diversify not only export routes, but also investment geographies, and the Mediterranean may emerge as a key strategic space in this transformation.

With the current energy crisis, Gulf producers were reminded that even the world’s most important oil-exporting region can be exposed to major geopolitical disruptions. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were able to reduce some of the damage thanks to infrastructure that bypasses Hormuz. Saudi Arabia relied heavily on its East-West pipeline connecting the Gulf to Red Sea ports, while the UAE expanded exports through the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. These infrastructures proved their strategic value during the crisis and will likely encourage Gulf states to accelerate investments in alternative routes.

Future Gulf strategies will likely focus on reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for exports. This could mean new pipelines toward the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, or, potentially, toward Mediterranean outlets through regional partnerships. Mediterranean infrastructure, including ports, storage facilities, pipelines and refineries, may therefore gain new strategic importance. Countries such as Turkey, Egypt and even states along the southern Mediterranean, such as Syria, could become part of a broader diversification strategy aimed at protecting Gulf exports from future disruptions.

Iraq’s response to the crisis offers a clear example of how regional energy cooperation can quickly become a necessity. Faced with collapsing exports through the Gulf, Baghdad revived alternative routes through Turkey while also increasing exports through Syria’s Baniyas terminal, for the first time in decades. These emergency arrangements showed that Mediterranean access points can become vital alternatives during moments of geopolitical crisis. A similar logic may increasingly shape thinking in the Gulf states in the years ahead.

At the same time, Gulf countries may begin investing more heavily in storage facilities and energy assets outside the Gulf itself. Building strategic reserves abroad or investing in oil and gas infrastructure in the Mediterranean would provide an additional layer of protection against future disruptions. Gulf investors could see Mediterranean storage hubs as valuable insurance policies that allow exports and trading activities to continue even during instability in the Gulf region.

The eastern Mediterranean may also attract greater Gulf interest in natural gas investments. Qatar and the UAE have already shown interest in energy projects in countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel. Investing in Eastern Mediterranean gas fields would allow Gulf producers to diversify geographically while remaining close to European and Asian markets. Such investments would not simply be commercial, they would also serve long-term strategic goals linked to energy security and market resilience.

However, one major question remains: will Gulf countries continue prioritising renewable energy investments abroad while reassessing their energy security strategies at home? Gulf capital has become increasingly important for renewable projects across the Mediterranean. UAE companies, particularly the energy company Masdar, have invested heavily in renewable energy projects in North Africa, while Saudi Arabia has also expanded investments in solar and wind projects in the region. These initiatives have positioned Gulf countries as important actors in the Mediterranean’s green transition.

Yet the current crisis may temporarily shift priorities back toward energy security and fossil fuel infrastructure. Governments facing geopolitical shocks often prioritise immediate economic stability before returning to longer-term climate goals. Some renewable projects may therefore slow down in the short term as Gulf states reassess risks and redesign their energy strategies.

The crisis has shown that both Europe and the southern Mediterranean remain deeply vulnerable to disruptions in fossil fuels, including oil, gas and refined products such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Europe’s scramble for alternative gas supplies after disruptions to Gulf liquefied natural gas exports demonstrated that dependence on imported fossil fuels still carries enormous geopolitical and economic risks.

Rather than responding only through new fossil fuel deals, Mediterranean countries on both shores should treat this moment as an opportunity to accelerate investment in regional green connectivity projects. Electricity interconnections between North Africa, Southern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean could become one of the most effective tools for reducing vulnerability during future crises. A more integrated regional electricity system based on renewables would allow countries to share excess power, stabilise supply and reduce dependence on imported fuels during emergencies.

Projects such as the Greece-Egypt interconnector, the Italy-Tunisia Elmed cable and proposed electricity links between the Levant and Europe represent more than infrastructure investments, they are strategic resilience projects. North Africa’s solar and wind potential could help neet domestic demand and supply European markets while creating jobs and industrial opportunities in the South. If properly designed, these projects could serve as the foundation for a more balanced Euro-Mediterranean partnership.

A successful Mediterranean energy partnership must be built around mutual benefit: local industrial development, technology transfer, employment creation and shared infrastructure. Clean energy cooperation should not reproduce the inequalities of the old fossil fuel economy. The Mediterranean today stands at a crossroads. The current energy crisis may push Gulf countries to diversify routes, storage and investments beyond the Gulf itself, creating new opportunities for Mediterranean states. But the real strategic lesson of this crisis is broader: resilience will not come only from new oil pipelines or storage facilities. It will come from building an integrated Mediterranean energy system based on connectivity, renewable electricity and shared industrial development. If northern and southern Mediterranean countries can seize this moment to deepen cooperation, the region could emerge stronger, greener and less vulnerable to future geopolitical shocks.

Photo credits: Shutterstock/GreenOak