Marco LISI

Associate Professor at the Department of Political Studies, Nova University of Lisbon and researcher at IPRI

The 2025 legislative elections dealt a crushing blow to Portugal’s progressive left while cementing right-wing dominance across the electorate. Most significantly, the far-right Chega emerged as the standout winner, directly undermining the Socialist Party’s long-held position as the principal opposition and alternative governing force.

These snap elections followed a calculated gambit by the centre-right PSD (Social Democratic Party) minority government, which called for a vote while facing conflict-of-interest allegations against Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. Leveraging positive economic indicators and social stability achieved through wage increases, the government sought to strengthen its position against opposition forces. While in opposition, the PS leadership suffered particularly from strategic incoherence. The PS Secretary-General Pedro Nuno Santos’ contradictory stances – facilitating the approval of the 2025 state budget while simultaneously positioning the party as the government’s principal opponent – created a damaging perception of political opportunism. This strategic ambivalence culminated in the Socialists abstaining from opposition-led censure motions against the government they were supposedly challenging.

This zigzagging approach proved catastrophic for the party’s credibility. Rather than establishing themselves as the clear government alternative, the Socialists appeared tactically confused – neither fully committed to responsible opposition nor offering a genuinely different political project. The electorate, sensing this fundamental inconsistency, responded by withdrawing support from a party that seemed increasingly rudderless and lacking conviction in its own political identity.

During the election campaign, Pedro Nuno Santos initially focused on ethical attacks, personally targeting the prime minister’s lack of transparency regarding his personal affairs. This approach faltered as polling consistently showed growing centre-right support and a widening gap over the Socialists. Recognising the strategy’s failure, the PS pivoted to criticising the government’s economic management and social policy shortcomings. This proved dangerous territory for the Socialists for three key reasons. First, the government benefited from exceptional economic conditions – GDP growth exceeding European averages, record-low unemployment and unprecedented public debt reduction – ironically, achievements inherited from António Costa’s Socialist government.

Second, with economic concerns diminished, identity issues – particularly immigration – took centre stage. The government strategically competed with far-right Chega by politicising immigration, dominating campaign discourse and favouring right-leaning public sentiment. The PS awkwardly reversed course, adopting restrictive immigration positions that contradicted their previous policies and alienated progressive voters.

Third, the negative shadow of the Geringonça (Socialist-radical left alliance established between 2015 and 2019) continued haunting Pedro Nuno Santos, who faced relentless attacks portraying him as ideologically extreme and ineffective on social issues. Most voters associated this coalition period with deteriorating public services and stagnant wages despite rising living costs. The PS leader carried additional baggage from his own ministerial performance, particularly his poor reputation for managing housing and transportation portfolios.

Behind this tactical quicksand lay a more fundamental failure: the Socialist Party’s inability to articulate a compelling alternative vision for Portugal’s future. During their opposition period, rather than developing a bold programmatic platform with clear structural reforms, they squandered valuable time that could have been used to reimagine their approach to governance. Instead of presenting transformative medium and long-term proposals, their campaign relied on narrow, incremental measures that failed to differentiate the party from the governing PSD meaningfully. Voters searching for substantial policy distinctions between the two main parties found mostly rhetorical differences rather than substantive alternatives. Under António Costa’s leadership, the Socialist Party routinely deployed the spectre of a potential PSD-Chega alliance to frighten moderate voters into supporting the PS as a bulwark against far-right influence in government. This tactic – positioning the Socialists as the only reliable barrier preventing extremist participation in executive power – had previously proven effective in consolidating centrist support.  

However, this strategy collapsed entirely during Montenegro’s PSD leadership. As early as 2024, Montenegro categorically and repeatedly rejected any possibility of coalition with the radical right, effectively neutralising the PS’s primary fear-based messaging. By establishing this cordon sanitaire through clear, unambiguous statements, Montenegro successfully inoculated his party against Socialist attempts to portray the PSD as a potential enabler of extremism. This pre-emptive rejection of Chega collaboration fundamentally undermined a key Socialist campaign narrative, forcing the PS to compete on substantive policy grounds where – given their strategic ambivalence and programmatic vagueness – they found themselves at a significant disadvantage.

The Socialist electorate shrinks

The election results delivered a seismic blow to Portugal’s left, with the Socialist Party recording its third-worst performance in history, capturing just 23.4 per cent of votes. Meanwhile, far-right Chega surged dramatically, gaining nearly five percentage points to reach 23 per cent  – essentially matching the Socialists – while the centre-right PSD strengthened its position with 33 per cent support. The traditional radical left suffered catastrophic losses, particularly the Left Bloc (BE), which collapsed from four MPs to a single representative and saw its vote total plummet by more than half.

While the PS has traditionally functioned as a successful catch-all party appealing to diverse voter segments, alarming structural shifts in its support base raise serious concerns about its electoral viability. The party faces a demographic crisis as its voter base rapidly ages. Unlike Livre (a libertarian- ecologist party), which has shown some capacity to attract younger supporters, the PS struggles to connect with and mobilise youth voters –  a critical demographic for future electoral sustainability. Geographically and socioeconomically, left-wing support has contracted to primarily urban, educated constituencies while critically eroding among middle-income voters in both public and private sectors. These middle-class voters, once the backbone of Socialist electoral success, have increasingly abandoned the party.

Perhaps most devastating has been the unprecedented rightward migration of elderly voters –  historically, the most loyal and dependable Socialist constituency. These older voters, who reliably supported the PS and other traditional left parties for generations, have shifted their allegiance to either the centre-right AD coalition or the far-right Chega, fundamentally reshaping Portugal’s electoral landscape. Recent campaign polling reveals a troubling transformation in the Socialist Party’s voter profile. The PS electorate is rapidly converging with the traditional demographic pattern of Communist supporters – , characterised by an ageing voter base, lower educational attainment, and disproportionate representation among economically vulnerable citizens. This narrowing demographic profile represents a strategic catastrophe for a party historically defined by its broad electoral appeal. The Socialist voter base is becoming increasingly homogeneous and concentrated within specific population segments, severely limiting the party’s competitive capacity against the PSD.

Most critically, this shift undermines the PS’s fundamental identity as a moderate centre-left force capable of building diverse electoral coalitions necessary for governmental power. Without the ability to attract middle-class professionals, young voters and economically secure citizens alongside its traditional working-class base, the Socialists find themselves increasingly marginalised in the competition for governmental leadership.

Challenges ahead

The initial Socialist response to electoral defeat consisted of framing their setback as part of an inevitable European and global surge in radical right populism rather than confronting their specific party failures. Another alleged cause of the Socialist defeat (and Chega’s rise) was disinformation campaigns across digital platforms, systematically distorting public discourse while progressives failed to develop effective counter-messaging strategies. Meanwhile, Chega skilfully diverted attention from their own policy ambiguities by sensationalising corruption narratives that dominated campaign discourse while offering deceptively simple solutions to complex social challenges through calculated populist messaging.

Following the electoral collapse, Pedro Nuno Santos resigned as Socialist leader, creating an urgent leadership vacuum. The incoming leader faces formidable challenges before the autumn 2025 local elections and the January 2026 presidential contests: rejuvenate the party internally, craft policies that reconnect with abandoned core supporters and reclaim disillusioned civil society allies. Strategically, the PS must navigate treacherous waters – competing with Chega for opposition leadership while confronting a fundamental dilemma: cooperate with the PSD to isolate Chega and advance key reforms (like welfare policies, public services, justice), or sharpen polarisation against right-wing forces by rebuilding a broader progressive alliance. The path forward requires recognising both structural and strategic challenges while rebuilding a progressive vision that can cut through right-wing noise and reconnect with discontent voters seeking alternatives to right-wing governance.

As Portugal celebrates the 50th anniversary of its first democratic elections, the nation has experienced an unprecedented conservative surge. For the first time since the establishment of democratic governance, right-wing parties have secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority – crossing the crucial threshold required for constitutional revision, fulfilling a long-held ambition of Portugal’s conservative political forces.

Photo credits: Shutterstock.com/studio f22 ricardo rocha