Program Officer, Foreign and Security Policies, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung DC
12/11/2024
When I woke up on 6 November, my phone was flooded with texts from family in Europe. Shock, fear, anxiety, dread – it was all reflected in the questions on my screen. What will happen to you? Will you be okay? And what does this mean for us, here in Europe? Though it is difficult to answer the last question with certainty, given that uncertainty is Trump’s hallmark regarding foreign policy, one thing is certain: Europe should brace for impact.
In his first term, and in the intervening years since, Trump made it clear what a second Trump administration would mean for Europe, and the US-EU relationship: Europe is on its own, and the transatlantic relationship as we know it will be consigned to the ash heap of history. He has said that Europe will largely be on its own when it comes to defence; he has expressed scepticism about continued US support for Ukraine; and he has promised to implement tariffs that will inflict pain on European manufacturers. NATO, too, is at risk. Though Trump cannot unilaterally withdraw from the alliance, he could ‘quiet quit‘ and he has laid out concrete plans where the US takes a backseat to Europe when it comes to NATO. The consequences of a second Trump term are, of course, not limited to defence. The US will approach cooperation on all issues – including energy, climate, health and competition – differently.
European leaders said throughout Trump’s first term that they needed to start taking on more responsibility for Europe’s defence, and in some ways, they did, but much of that progress slowed under a friendlier Biden administration. Under Biden, ‘America was back’ – and the traditional transatlantic alliance with it. But under the second Trump administration, ‘America First’ is back – and Europe will have to adjust. The flood of congratulatory messages for Trump from European leaders shows that they have understood one fundamental truth to working with Trump: flattery is necessary, and criticism will result in punishment for their nation. And even if Europe has to stand alone, European leaders understand that EU-US cooperation will have to remain (though it will not be on their terms).
The two finalists for Secretary of State that the Washington Postreports are under consideration – Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former acting director of national intelligence Richard Grenell (and former Ambassador to Germany) – would have different approaches to foreign policy, and especially to the US-EU relationship. Rubio is, in most senses, a traditionalist Republican, a foreign policy hawk who fundamentally believes in international engagement. Though he has adapted his foreign policy views to be more ‘Trumpian,’ he would likely represent a more ‘pragmatic‘ foreign policy vision for the US. Grenell delighted in provoking Germany during his ambassadorship, and would focus on building out a foreign policy network, in Europe and beyond. He would embody a much darker impulse towards foreign policy within Trump world.
But ultimately, in issues of foreign and domestic policy, Trump will have the final say. He will sometimes listen to his advisers, and sometimes he won’t, and there is no predictable pattern when it comes to either. He considers unpredictability his signature weapon – a difficult prospect for allies and partners who seek to work together with him and with the US. With Trump at the helm, the US will no longer be a reliable partner.
The transatlantic relationship will not disappear under Trump. There are underpinnings deeper than the top of the ticket that will help maintain the relationship – on a state, local and civic engagement level, especially. And the ties that bind, pragmatically, will remain; though Trump will always prioritise America, there will be concrete issues that will call for continued cooperation, globally and transatlantically.
For better or for worse, Europe will have to learn to carry its own weight – quickly. And Europe will have to take up the mantle on global issues that Trump will cast aside: climate, tech, AI and regulation. This will require a commitment to European solidarity – not a given – and working closely together at an EU level to compellingly represent forceful policy positions on these issues.
And ultimately, this is a warning for Europe, and for future elections in Europe. Democrats will join the ‘graveyard of incumbents‘ – for the first time in 120 years, the incumbents in every one of the ten major countries that have held elections in 2024 have been punished by voters. ‘Incumbency advantage’ has been replaced by ‘incumbency disadvantage’. And this election was firmly a ‘post-truth’ election – voters were moved more by their feelings and impressions than by facts. European incumbent parties would do well to try to adjust to this new reality as quickly as possible, or they risk learning the same painful lessons that the Democrats here in America must grapple with for the next few years.
The ongoing debate about what this new year will bring expresses a generalised disquiet. Yes, […]
XThis website uses cookies. Some cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of the website and cannot be refused if you wish to visit the website.
Other cookies are used for Advertisement and Analytics (Sharing on social networks, video playing, analysis and statistics, personalized advertising ...) You can refuse them if you want to. REJECTACCEPTCookie settings
Manage consent
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
Cookie
Duration
Description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement
1 year
Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category .
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional
11 months
The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
csrftoken
past
This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks
JSESSIONID
session
The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application.
viewed_cookie_policy
11 months
The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Cookie
Duration
Description
__cf_bm
30 minutes
This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management.
S
1 hour
Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics.
sp_landing
1 day
The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content.
sp_t
1 year
The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Cookie
Duration
Description
CONSENT
2 years
YouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data.
iutk
session
This cookie is used by Issuu analytic system to gather information regarding visitor activity on Issuu products.
s_vi
2 years
An Adobe Analytics cookie that uses a unique visitor ID time/date stamp to identify a unique vistor to the website.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Cookie
Duration
Description
NID
6 months
NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE
5 months 27 days
A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface.
YSC
session
YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages.
yt-remote-connected-devices
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt-remote-device-id
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt.innertube::nextId
never
This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.
yt.innertube::requests
never
This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.