Maria João RODRIGUES

FEPS President

The ongoing debate about what this new year will bring expresses a generalised disquiet. Yes, the European boat we are in is indeed going to face higher waves, new deep currents and great uncertainties. Moreover, the so-called ‘Trump II effect’ will exacerbate these deep currents – this will become clearer to the world at latest with his inaugural speech on 20 January. Yes, the European boat is fragile, but it is still our best chance of sailing – if, however, we find the courage to be bolder and more politically ambitious.

Faced with a war over areas of influence on the European continent, strengthening military support for Ukraine and providing it with the security guarantees for a lasting ceasefire is not enough; we also need to launch a process of rebuilding and preparing the country to fulfil its democratic aspiration to join the European Union.

Faced with the multidimensional pressure from President Vladmir Putin’s Russia against the European Union, strengthening the EU’s and NATO’s military defence capacity to achieve such a ceasefire in Ukraine is not enough; we need to develop a multidimensional defence capacity for the EU as a whole in the military, energy, commercial, technological, cultural, political and media fields.

Faced with a multipolar international order that risks fragmentation and isolation, the EU cannot allow itself to be consumed by this war on its doorstep. It must muster up the capacity to build bridges and diverse alliances across the world—the only lasting way to win a war of this nature. Europe should aim for a new generation of strategic partnerships for co-development and peace. The EU-Mercosur agreement is a good starting point.

Faced with the outbreak of global emergencies such as the pandemic and the climate crisis, it is not enough for Europe to raise its internal targets and capacities for self-protection. It needs to strengthen its international cooperation and work to reform the multilateral system for more effective and inclusive global governance.

Faced with the risk of a trade war, as announced by Trump, and which will probably be replicated by China, it is not enough for the EU to raise its tariffs on imports, as is happening in the car industry, one of its most emblematic and significant industries in terms of employment. The EU needs to launch an ambitious and swift industrial plan that will allow European manufacturers to produce electric vehicles that are affordable for the European middle class and in a position to compete openly with Chinese and American vehicles.

Faced with increasing competitive pressure in all sectors, Europe cannot be limited to using its traditional trade and competition policy instruments alone. It will need to recognise once and for all the need for an industrial policy that supports innovation in all sectors and has a greater capacity to decarbonise and digitalise.

Faced with the reorganisation of the world and all economic sectors based on powerful American and Chinese digital platforms, it will not be enough for Europe to develop specific regulations for data, applications, digital services and artificial intelligence – as it has been doing until now. It will also be necessary to develop European capacities to offer alternatives in these different components of the digital supply chain.

Faced with the scale of the new competitive challenge that Europe will face to promote sustainable development with more innovative solutions, it is not enough to strengthen the training of its workers; we need to respond to the current shortage of human resources in various sectors with a greater capacity to retain young people in the territories and conduct a well-managed opening up to immigration – without which our welfare state will hardly be viable.

Given the scale of the investment that will need to be launched over the next years, mobilising as much private investment as possible through integrating the capital markets or making maximum use of the (meagre) margin allowed by the stability pact at the level of national public budgets is not enough. It will be necessary to consolidate and utilise the European joint debt issuance instrument activated during the dramatic pandemic. Building a new strategic consensus and strengthening the coalition of pro-European forces in the EU institutions are not enough to strengthen the EU’s capacity to decide and act on all these fronts. An in-depth democratic debate will also be necessary to mobilise the support of European citizens.

For such a European public debate, defending freedom of expression and pluralism is insufficient. The EU cannot be in the hands of social networks like X/Twitter or TikTok; it will have to build its own media infrastructure to regain the foundations of its sovereignty. More than two decades ago, Europe built a monetary system with its own currency to reinforce its sovereignty in the face of unstable financial markets. Times are different, but the ambition must be comparable.

Photo credits: Shutterstock.com/Natali Snailcat (modified on Adobe Illustrator)