Research Project: Europe within the Global Economy

FEPS in collaboration with the Economic Council of the Labour Movement – ECLM – (Copenhagen)  and the Centre for Development Policy and Research – CDPR (SOAS University of London) – have set up a research project with the aim of assessing the Role of Europe within the Global Economy. As part of this effort the project will focus on critical issues such as EU-US trade relation and the consequences for Europe of the continued secular rise in the economic power of major emerging economies (‘The Rise of the Global South’).

The central issues governing the development of the FEPS-CDPR-ECLM 2014 research agenda will be how Europe can position itself economically and benefit the most from the projected rise of the global south and from the proposed new EU-US trade agreement. The positioning of Europe within the global economy will be based on the essentials of the scenarios developed in 2013 as part of the research project of FEPS-CDPR-ECLM “Alternative Macroeconomic Policies for Europe”: 1) continuing current austerity measures and 2) implementing, instead, a strategy for employment-led economic recovery (the way out of the crisis). 

The objective of the 2014 reserch project is to refine the strategy for employment-led recovery in the light of the potential for strengthening trade and financial links with major emerging economies (e.g.China, India, Brazil, and Turkey, in particular) and the US.

The research will result into a series of policy papers on the following issues:

1) The projected economic role of Europe within the global context based on the contrasting scenarios of continued austerity versus employment-promotion policies;

2) The impact on Europe of projected closer economic relations with the US, such as a new enlarged trade agreement;

3) The impact on Europe of projected growing trade and financial relations with the major emerging economies of China, India, Brazil and Turkey.

The project uses two macroeconomic models:

State of the World Economy (SOWE) model. This programme is currently supported by the Centre for Development Policy and Research (CDPR)

HEIMDAL model, developed by the Economic Council of the Labour Movement (ECLM)

Research Team:

Lars Andersen (The Economic Council of the Labour Movement – ECLM, Director)

Erik Bjørsted (The Economic Council of the Labour Movement – ECLM, Senior Analyst)

Dr Giovanni Cozzi (Foundation for European Progressive Studies, – FEPS Economic Advisor)

Signe Hansen (The Economic Council ofthe Labout Movement – ECLM, Senior Analyst)

Prof. Terry McKinley (Centre for Development Policy and Research, Director)

Dr Jo Michell (University of the West of England)

Research and policy related output:

Michell, J. (2014) Youth unemployment figures understate the true impact of the crisis. Economic Policy Viewpoint n.5

Bjørsted, E. (2014) Youths are trapped in unemployment. Economic Policy Viewpoint N.3 

Michell, J. (2014) The UK’s debt-led recovery is unsustainable. Economic Policy Viewpoint No.2 

Bjørsted, E. (2014) The problem of long-term unemployment, Economic Policy Viewpoint No.1

Selected background material:

Andersen, L. and Bjørsted, (2013) The Way Out of the Crisis: An Alternative to Austerity, Policy Brief No.3

McKinley, T., Cozzi G., Mitchell, J., and Bargawi, A. (2013) How can the EU Federal Government spearhead an employment-led recovery?, Policy Brief No.1

McKinley, T. Bargawi, H., Cozzi, G. and Michell, J. (forthcoming) AUGUR Final report: scenarios to 2025 – global development, demographic change and migration

McKinley, T. and Cozzi, G. (2012) Could Employment-Focused Policies Spearhead Economic Recovery in Europe? Policy Brief No. 4, Centre for Development Policy and Research

Hansen, S. (2012) Gloomier outlook for Europe, The Economic Council of the Labour Movement

ECLM (2012) ECLM Forcast Evaluation During the Crisis

McKinley, T. and Cozzi, G. (2011) Fiscal Contraction or Fiscal Expansion in the US: Which Will Promote Growth and Employment in the US? Development Viewpoint No.66, Centre for Development Policy and Research

Bargawi, H. (2011) and McKinley, T. (2011) Can Drustic Deficit Reduction Help Economic Recovery? Development Viewpoint No.60, Centre for Development Policy and Research   

 The Models (manuals):

Heimdal

State of the World Economy (SOWE)