Reinhard KRUMM 

Americans have elected a new Congress: going into 2027, both chambers will be under Democratic control. On the campaign trail, president Donald Trump had repeatedly urged voters to pretend as if he was on the ballot – and it seems they did. Voters boosted Democratic candidates in states that had voted for Trump by large margins in 2024. In the House of Representatives, Republicans lost significantly. The real surprise, however, came when the first close Senate races were called for Democrats. 

Returning to the oval office in early 2025, president Trump laid out a bold economic agenda that promised to lower prices on energy and housing, strengthen the domestic industry and create new jobs. In true ‘America first’ spirit, he positioned himself as a peacemaker that would end wars instead of starting them and imposed tariffs to counter what he claimed were unfair trading practices. Exactly two years later, these promises remain unfullfilled. High mortgage rates, inflation and tariffs keep driving up the cost of living, and gas prices skyrocketed following the onset of the Iran war in March. Since then, Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 40 percentage points, with recent numbers plummeting to 37 per cent, compared to a 60 per cent disapproval rating. Although lower approval ratings for the incumbent president are historically not uncommon during midterm elections, Trump’s pre-midterm approval rating is the lowest of any president since Harry Truman’s 27 per cent in 1946. 

The economy repeatedly ranks as the issue for American voters in federal elections. Consequently, in 2026, concerns about rising gas and energy prices, as well as exorbitant grocery bills brought affordability to the forefront of political campaigning. Analyses show that both parties spent significant amounts of their campaign funds on advertisements related to affordable living, such as healthcare and housing. ‘Culture War issues’ which had received a lot of attention in the 2024 campaigns and sparked controversy, including diversity, abortion or gender-affirming care, were sidelined. Instead Democrats’ ads focused on corruption, affordable health care – and Trump. Turning the president’s plummeting approval ratings into their own munition, Democrats seized every opportunity to tie their political opponents to the president and his unpopular economic policies, the cruel anti-migration policy and particularly emphasising the role that Republicans in Congress played by refusing to condemn the United States’ involvement in Iran. Further, by centering Trump’s corruption, Democrats appealed to the prevailing anti-establishment sentiments that Trump himself originally took advantage of to rise to power.

Republicans left under water

On election night this November, the dissatisfaction with the Republicans mounted to a blue wave. Democrats went into the election hoping to pick up four seats to break the Republican dominance in the Senate. Instead, they successfully flipped seven Senate seats: North and South Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Kansas and Texas. Two potential flips in Alaska and Mississippi are still too close to call (at the time of writing on 6 Octber). Of these, all but Maine had supported Donald Trump against Kamala Harris in 2024 – most by double digit margins. Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive democratic candidate in Michigan, and Jon Ossoff, the incumbent Democratic senator in Georgia, also successfully defended two Democratic seats in swing states that narrowly backed Trump in 2024. 

In the House of Representatives, Democrats are projected to gain up to a 260/ 175 majority; the largest margin in at least fifty years and a significantly larger seat share then the pre-election estimate of 234 seats. To protect a GOP majority in the House, Trump had pushed Republicans in eight states to redraw their congressional districts ahead of the midterm election. Although districts in seven states were ultimately redrawn to favor Republicans, among them in Texas, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, Trump’s plan backfired. 

From the 15 seats that Republicans had hoped to pick up, so far none have been called for their respective candidates. Gerrymandering in North Carolina alone, was intended to deliver 11 out of 14 districts to Republicans. Democrats are currently projected to have won 10 of those seats and also two seats in Ohio, that were redrawn to safeguard a Republican victory. Republicans miscalculated: they created new districts based on their 2024 results, assuming their novel gains among formerly blue voters would remain. The midterm results have proven the opposite to be true.

A coalition not made to last

Preliminary voter trends suggest that the entire American electorate has shifted toward the Democratic party. Although white Americans voted Republican by a slim majority (51 per cent), vote share for the Democrats rose by 13 points compared to 2024. Non-white voters, on the other hand, clearly favored the Democrats, with the strongest gains occurring among Latinos (+29 per cent compared to 2024). While Trump had managed to gain traction among Latino voters in 2024, increasing his Latino vote share by 16 points compared to 2020, the group swung back strongly toward Democrats now. Initially attracted by a stricter immigration policy and the promise of an economic upswing, Latinos feel alienated by Trump’s harsh immigration crackdown, and a crippled economy. Surging ICE raids have negatively impacted local economies in some places. Violent incidents, such as repeated killings by ICE officers, for example in Minneapolis and Houston, have also sparked fears of increased profiling against Hispanics and, for many, crossed a line. They had voted in favor of deporting criminals, not law-abiding residents.

Another group that strongly swung back toward Democrats was young men, aged 18 to 24. While in 2024, a clear majority of them voted for Republicans, the Democratic vote share increased by 32 points in 2026. Decreasing partisanship among younger generations, as well as dissatisfaction with rising gas prices as result of the Iran war likely impacted that shift. And while low engagement voters tended to back Trump in 2024, they have shifted toward Democrats in 2026, displaying their discontent with the current political course.

The inability of Republicans to deliver on their promises to lower prices ultimately alienated large parts of the 2024 electorate. While large-scale dissatisfaction pushed voters toward the Democratic party, the Democrats remain very unpopular within the electorate. However, historic Democratic victories in Senate races across the country, for example in Texas and Michigan, show that some Democratic candidates’ authentic profiles were also able to draw voters in rather than simply benefiting from their disapproval of Trump.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico made history by winning the first Democratic Senate seat since 1988. His campaign centred on fighting corruption and the political influence of billionaires, which resonated with people all across the state, ultimately leading to a clear victory against his Trump-endorsed opponent, Ken Paxton. Last-minute financial support by Texas resident Elon Musk to Paxton’s campaign, to the tune of more than $150 million, provided an ideal opportunity for Talarico’s campaign to lock in its message about standing up against billionaires’ political influence. Democratic candidates in other states, such as mega-church pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas and former Paralympian Josh Turek in Iowa, similarly resonated uniquely with their local electorates, turning two deep red states blue. 

The blue wave did not restrict itself to the federal level. Democratic candidates won governorships in five formerly Republican governed states and are ahead in two still-uncalled races in Alaska and Kansas. They now hold the executive power to appoint government officials and approve or veto laws. In some states, governors are also in charge of certifying election results. In total, Democrats flipped State Houses of six states and gained control over the Senate chambers in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Looking ahead to 2030, Democrats could now redraw Congressional maps in both states to target additional seats. Democratic gains also averted Republican supermajorities in nine legislative chambers, making it harder for Republicans to override a Democratic governor’s veto. 

Historically, future success is never guaranteed

Whether Democrats can win over voters long-term, will depend on their ability to deliver on their promises to bring down costs. Given the unpopularity of the Democratic party, Democrats must seize the opportunity by producing clear policy outcomes that resonate with American consumers. Their legislative priorities include reinstating expired healthcare subsidies and reversing Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill’s cuts to Medicaid to bring down the cost of health care for millions of low-income Americans. 

Another item on the agenda is to reclaim congressional power over trade policy to end Trump’s tariffs. While tariff collection has raised government revenue significantly, they have also driven up prices for American businesses and consumers. Looking to Canada and Mexico, tariffs have significantly complicated cross-border business operations, especially in the manufacturing sector. It remains to be seen how drastically Democrats will be able to repeal the tariffs. 

Putting an end to the Iran war also remains a high-priority for Democrats, given its harmful effects on domestic prices and overall anti-war sentiment among the American public. With their newly claimed majorities, Democrats will increasingly investigate the Trump administration – particularly in regard to corruption within the Trump family, the mishandling of the Epstein files and the Iran war. 

Contrary to most predictions, the election unfolded smoothly with little interference from both, within the country and abroad. Compared to former elections, government officials have found minimal foreign activity. As for the president, he has publicly accepted the defeat, rendering attempts to prevent the certification of the election results unlikely. 

The midterms elections have now kicked off presidential campaigning for both parties. While the Republicans’ devastating results will likely broaden the field of potential candidates, the Democrats will also have to choose in which direction they will go in 2028. Neither party moderates nor progressives have come out of the election with a clear mandate, and it remains to be seen who can get both camps behind their campaign.

The author would like to thank Mirja Gerloff for her precious collaboration in drafting this piece.

Photo credits: Jonathan Thomas-Palmer / Shutterstock