Project NordMod 2030

FEPS (Foundation for European Progressive Studies) in corporation with SAMAK have commissioned Fafo to lead the Nordic research project, NordMod 2030. The aim is to analyze the characteristics of the Nordic model, understand its future sustainability and to establish, if, and how, the Nordic model is being challenged by international and national changes. The project will provide an evaluation of risks and challenges that are likely to face the Nordic model over the next two decades, as we are approaching the year 2030. This research will inform future policy makers in their work to renew the Nordic model.

The project is carried out by a group of researchers, with representatives from all the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland). The project is headed by Fafo, Norway, comprising a research team of: managing director Jon M. Hippe, managing director Tone Fløtten, senior researcher Jon Erik Dølvik, and researcher Bård Jordfald. The Fafo team will lead the Nordic research group, which consists of two researchers from each country. In addition, other researchers will assist throughout the project period.

The project will last from 2012 to 2014. During this period, three types of reports will be produced: baseline reports, Country reports, and thematic reports. In addition a final project report will be submitted in 2014.

Baseline reports

Three baseline reports are written:

* Pillars of the Nordic model

* The Nordic Population: changes in its composition, preferences, needs and norms,

* Changes in exogenous premises of the Nordic model.

The main purpose of these papers is to identify external (exogenous) and internal (endogenous) changes – and the drivers behind them – and to point out how they are likely to affect the pillars of the Nordic models. Furthermore, it will be explored if, and how, the conditions for action in the Nordic countries have been altered, and to what extent policy changes are required in the future in order to meet the needs of the Nordic populations, its labor markets and its welfare states. 

Country reports

A report will be developed for each of the five Nordic countries. These reports will summarise  how the national models are impacted by nation specific factors such as changes in demography, the labor market, welfare, gender equality, distribution of income, population preferences, needs and norms, as well as international factors such as climate changes, economic development and governance. The country reports will focus on developments in key economic, social and political indicators, which constitute the foundation of the Nordic model. The country specific reports will be based on previous research and evaluations and will describe key developments in the national models, as well as the current status of the model in each country. The five country reports will constitute the basis for a cross-national comparison, to be included in the final report.

Thematic reports

The third type of reports will focus on a number of cross-cutting themes, their development and potential lines of conflict. The aim is to identify relevant themes which will be further elaborated in the final project report. So far, five thematic reports are planned:

* Share to create – create to share. This report will be discussing the conditions for sustainable economic growth in the Nordic countries, focusing on what is needed to achieve ‘productive fairness’ in increasingly competitive and internationalized labor markets.

* Future financing and sustainability of the Nordic welfare state. This report will discuss issues related to developments in labor market participation and inclusion, population aging, social distribution, equality, poverty and social exclusion in the Nordic countries.

* A decent working life – the future of the collective agreement model. This report will raise issues related to employment, working conditions, conditions for labor union participation, collective agreements, and wage development in a labor market characterized by an increase in work migration.

* Inclusion- and integration challenges. This repot will concentrate on understanding how the Nordic countries can ensure an inclusive working life for all groups in the population, and especially for ethnic minorities. How can we ensure that as many as possible participates in the labour market, in education and in civil life?

* Democracy and participation. In this report changes in election behavior and political participation will be discussed.

Project progress and dissemination of findings

The Nordic research group will meet at between 4 and 6 workshops during the project period. The workshops will be held in the different participating nations. Nation specific reports and thematic reports will be presented to a wider audience after the workshops. At the workshops non-Nordic experts will be invited to discuss the Nordic models in the years leading up to 2030.

Publications in English: 

– The Nordic labour market models in open markets – challenges and perspectives (executive summary)

– Little Engines that Could: Can the Nordic economies maintain their renewed success?

– Historical making, present and future challenges for the Nordic welfare state model in Finland

Publications in Scandinavian languages click  here

Presentations in Scandinavian languages click here

Nordmod 2030 in the media click here