Expected labour market effects of the Green Deal Industrial Plan (2)

Policy Study

The policy study presents the potential impact of green industrial policies, such as the Green Deal Industrial Plan, on the European manufacturing workforce. The study uses the SEER model (estimating Socioeconomic Effects of the European green deal implementation and Reform) to explore how the future of the European labour market could look under various future scenarios related to the European Green Deal (EGD). It adopts a multi-level approach, presenting results at European, national and regional levels.  

This study provides insights on European manufacturing trends for 2025-2035, on the projected effects of the Green Deal Industrial Plan on the labour market and on the potential complimentarity between labour policies and the Green Deal Industrial Plan. It allows to identify different manufacturing labour market profiles in the EU and shows that the effectiveness of green industrial policies depends heavily on local labour market conditions. The study highlights key challenges for policy-makers, such as coordinating policies between regions.  

The study is the second part of the research “Expected labour market effects of the Green Deal Industrial Plan”. The first study focused on the potential of labour policy for Just Transition regions, while the present one proposes an EU-wide analysis. A third upcoming study will present actor-centred policy recommendations for a socially just and well-functioning European labour market.