FEPS Reacts: 10 years after Brexit

Written by FEPS Secretary-General László Andor

🔸 Brexit has been a case study in national self-harm. The UK was not pushed out of the EU. The British people voted themselves out of the EU 10 years ago through a referendum (23/06/2016): 48 % for staying in the EU and 52% for leaving. However, the majority voted Remain in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and cities like London, Manchester and Bristol. 

🔸Through decades in the EU, the UK had gained a privileged membership with lots of special arrangements (not being in the Eurozone and the Schengen zone, having a budget rebate, etc.). Having announced the referendum, Prime Minister Cameron demanded even more. The EU wanted to keep the UK in, but not at any price. 

🔸The Brexit campaign originates from billionaires (e.g. Referendum Party founder James Goldsmith) and ultra-Thatcherites (Nigel Farage and UKIP). They disliked the EU’s attachment to the notion of a social market economy and the coupling of a single currency with the single market.

🔸Brexit also reveals the limits of imbalances within the EU Single Market and the Monetary Union. It should be noted that the UK received more EU migrants than originally expected, and they were unhappy about being an employer of last resort during the Eurozone crisis. This is a lesson for EU economic governance and cohesion policy. 

🔸Brexit was not one thing, but a range of options. The British people voted to turn themselves from rule-makers into rule-takers, and the question was how much more damage the UK would impose on itself. The only serious damage limitation took place around the question of Northern Ireland.

🔸The long-run economic effects of Brexit have been detrimental. Essentially, the UK sanctioned itself by raising trade barriers with its main trading partners, undermining its growth potential. 

🔸Since Brexit, political instability has become a perpetual feature in UK, with over six successive governments. The UK is still reeling from the effects of a referendum co-opted by a far-right narrative, which has now spread across the EU. Brexit serves as a warning for the relationship between the far-right and the EU for Member-States, not only just for external relations, but also for internal stability. 

🔸For post-imperial British capitalism, the dilemma was whether to Europeanise or Americanise. For decades, the UK has benefited from both special relationships. Since the transatlantic rupture, it’s not only continental Europe but also the British who believe that we are in a new era and any available form of Americanisation is not about partnership but subordination. 

🔸In 2025-6, the government led by Keir Starmer has been inching towards closer cooperation with the EU. The incoming government in the UK will have to clarify perspectives of EU-UK relations as well.  

🔸A reintegration of the UK is certainly possible, while a return with the same membership conditions is unlikely. It is also important that if and when the UK makes a move for a new status with or within the EU, it should be based on a long-term national commitment and not just a mood swing.

Photo credits: Shutterstock/Gina Power