Wag the dog?

Written by FEPS Policy Analyst on International Relations Beatriz ABELLÁN and FEPS Secretary General László ANDOR

Wag the dog is a political term for the act of creating a diversion from a damaging issue usually through military force. The metaphor originally referred to an important or powerful entity (the dog) being controlled by a less important one (the tail). 

• The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran are a blatant violation of international law and the UN charter. It is also illegal under US law, as it has not been approved by Congress.  

• This war must be analysed from a legal and geopolitical view. Israel has a clear interest in incapacitating its main regional enemy and consolidating relations with Arab countries, specifically in the Gulf. The US interest is in controlling the Persian Gulf to influence global oil supplies and the energy inputs of China’s economy.  

• Netanyahu’s government advances its own political objectives in the region with systematic disregard for international law, including committing genocide against the Palestinian people. Meanwhile, US interventions to bring about regime change seem now a strategy from the Trump administration too (Venezuela and possibly others), despite its earlier rhetoric on peace.

Escalation in the region and beyond 

• This war is unlike the exchanges of attacks carried out over the past nine months. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader has brought the conflict to another level and follows the violation of a ceasefire agreed in June.  

• Iran’s retaliatory attacks on US bases, as well as unlawful targets of civilian infrastructure, in Gulf Countries and on a UK military base in Cyprus (EU soil) open up another risk of global escalation.  

• The regional repercussions are not only military but also social and economic, ranging from increased energy prices to forced displacement and disrupted connections, with a direct impact on the regional population and, globally, including the EU. 

Europe’s reactions and the US’ stake 

• Apart from Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who is a leading voice in the defence of International Law, and more timidly, Ireland, the rest of the Member States and the EU Commission have failed to denounce the US and Israel’s violation of international law.  The UK, Germany, and France have jointly expressed their support with the US and Israel to protect their interests and support allies.  

• The hypocrisy of some European leaders, and even some high-level EU officials, in their selective condemnation of international law violations comes as no surprise, but it also undermines support for the Ukrainian and Greenland sovereignty causes. 

• Because of its insulated geographic position, the US is the actor that risks the least with this war, facing minimal chances of an attack on US land or suffering significantly from the increase in energy prices, maritime disruptions. Yet, Trump is facing internal discontent within the MAGA movement and also reproaches from the US Congress. Although it is not uncommon for U.S. military interventions to be employed to boost domestic electoral support ahead of (midterm) elections. 

Impacts on the Iranian people 

• The losers of war are always civilians. Iranians, despite being for decades under a brutal regime, are the first to suffer from this violent escalation, from attacks on civilian infrastructure to the deterioration of living conditions. For decades, Iran’s population has been suffering from a brutal sanctions regime imposed by the US.  

• Despite Trump’s words on the US stepping back after achieving its objectives, the future of the country remains uncertain. Past US regime change operations, such as those in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan, have not brought peace and prosperity to the country; but far from that, they have been followed by governance failure and the proliferation of criminal and extremist actors. 

• Democracy in Iran can be supported without external aggression. The voices of the women in Iran must be put at the centre, without exploiting their struggle to justify a neocolonial war. 

Photo credits: Shutterstock/carlos110