Is a bad COP outcome better than no outcome at all?

Providing an answer is difficult, when the stakes are as high and diverse as they were at COP30 in Belém. Here are some key takeaways:

🔸A symbolic victory? Amid international geopolitical and trade tensions, the influence of Trump’s climate denialism and the lack of trust between the Global South and Global North, getting all countries to support a high-level political decision was far from certain. In this sense, the Global Mutirão decision can be seen as a sign of continued climate multilateralism.   

🔸A bad text. Beyond the symbol, the Global Mutirão decision is little more than an empty document, far from the commitments needed to protect humanity. The decision does not reiterate the COP28 call to “transition away from fossil fuels” and does not even mention fossil fuels. It also does not credibly address the gap in ambition and implementation to stay at a 1.5 degree warming.

🔸Small progress, nevertheless. COP30 still managed to take a few steps in the right direction, for example, with the creation of a Just Transition Mechanism. This can be considered progress, however small it is. Just Transition continues to encapsulate the philosophy of the progressive endeavour: reconciling the protection of the climate with social cohesion worldwide.

🔸An uninvited but welcome guest. Establishing a global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, an essential issue, was not on the COP30 agenda, but it still found its way into the negotiations. After a failed attempt to include it in the final decision, the Brazilian COP30 President announced a parallel initiative for the roadmap, outside of COP. Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host the first international conference on the topic.

🔸A missed opportunity for the EU. The EU failed to demonstrate leadership and rebuild trust with the Global South at COP30. Now that the time has come for coalitions of the willing on climate action, the EU must support ambitious parallel initiatives: the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels Roadmap announced at COP30, but also existing initiatives like the Coalition on Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Incentives Including Subsidies.

European progressives have been warning against attempts to weaken key commitments secured in previous international climate conferences. The EU and its member states can only expect global partners to commit to robust climate change mitigation if they lead by example at home. Citizens should be alarmed by the new tendency of centre-right and far-right forces working together, including in the European Parliament, to step back from the ambition of the European Green Deal. This poses a threat to both social and environmental sustainability, as well as economic competitiveness.

By Chloé Deffet, Policy Analyst on Climate and László Andor, FEPS Secretary General

Photo credit: © UN Climate Change – Zô Guimarães