Terra incognita

Foresight series: The long-term implications of the war in Ukraine

Policy Brief

14/02/2023

What are the implications of the war in Ukraine for the different dimensions of international affairs?

The impact of the war is both of urgent relevance and of long-term consequences. Tensions among great powers have risen, geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, the international energy order is being upended, food supply chains have been disrupted, the global economy is facing severe headwinds, fragile countries and regions are being exposed to multiple shocks, and multilateral governance is faltering, as normative disconnects come to the fore.

In this policy brief, Giovanni Grevi argues that the war in Ukraine affects the future in different ways. For one, it has accelerated patterns of change that predated it, including great power competition, middle power activism, and the crisis of multilateralism. For another, Russia’s aggression has introduced major discontinuities, such as triggering a global energy crisis, fracturing the European security order, and sparking nuclear threats by Russia. In addition, the war has diverted the focus from critical challenges, such as sustainable development and climate change, while aggravating these challenges both directly and indirectly.

This policy brief outlines some of the factors that might drive change alongside the ongoing war – factors such as the evolution of the rivalry between the US and China and of the partnership between China and Russia. It also outlines some of the risks facing the global economy, as well as the prospects for the clean energy transition and its strategic implications, and the rising costs of failure to address shared challenges through cooperation.

What lies ahead is terra incognita – a strategic landscape that eludes comparisons with earlier historical phases. While geopolitical competition is nothing new, even if it subsided for a couple of decades, the risks it poses are increased by the fact that it is surging at a time of power transitions and unprecedented economic, technological, and ecological interdependence. However, by tackling geopolitical challenges and managing multi-dimensional competition, while seeking to advance a rules-based international order, leadership can make a decisive difference in determining distinct pathways to the future.

Network
Fondation Jean-Jaurès
Karl Renner Institut
Olof Palmes Internationella Center
Related publications
14/12/2022

War in Ukraine, refugees, inclusion and human mobility

The challenges for a progressive EU policy
14/12/2022

The EU asylum system and the Ukrainian humanitarian crisis

07/12/2022

The Russia-Ukraine war: An inflection point for sustainable energy transitions

04/07/2022

Partnerships and European strategic autonomy

European Strategic Autonomy series - Security & Defense
11/05/2022

Builders of Progress: The war in Ukraine through the eyes of youth

This is the first publication of the research project Builders for Progress
Find all related publications
Publications
09/12/2024

China: Dangerous rival or cooperation partner?

How can EU-China relations develop in a changing world with geopolitical conflicts?
18/05/2024

Redefining European engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

From financial aid to institution building
13/05/2024

Toward a progressive geopolitical EU

FEPS YAN Series
19/04/2024

A New Global Deal

Reforming world governance
Find all related Progressive Post
Progressive Post
12/11/2024

Whose side are you on? The role of workers in the next Democratic Party

Find all related events
Events
Past
10/12/2024
FEPS HQ, Brussels

The Social Transformation of Ukraine

Progressive insights on reconstruction and inclusion
16/11/2024
Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Africa Day 2024 – Getting rights right

FEPS fringe events
19/09/2024
New York, USA (Expert meeting)

A New Global Deal

Reforming world governance
Find all related news
News
03/12/2024

FEPS President Maria João Rodrigues at the 2024 Understanding China Conference

15/05/2024

Notice of vacancy – Policy analyst on international relations

This vacancy is now closed.
22/03/2024

FEPS attends the 68th annual Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)

18/03/2024

FEPS President on Euronews talk-show ‘Brussels, my love?’

NATO extension, Portuguese elections, far-right and gender equality were the topics of the debate
Find all related in the media
In the media

FEPS President on Euronews talk-show ‘Brussels, my love?’

by Euronews 16/03/2024
FEPS President Maria João Rodrigues discusses NATO expansions and elections in Russia and Portugal on Euronews talk-show ‘Brussels, my love?‘

What are Hungary’s conditions for lifting its Ukraine Facility veto?

by Euractiv 12/01/2024
In this episode, Evi Kiorri asks Andriy Korniychuk, policy analyst and expert on Ukraine matters at the Foundation for European Progressive Studies: what are Viktor Orbán's conditions, and why is Hungary considering changing its position?

Une réforme de l’UE qui intéressera forcément les Suisses

by Le Temps 24/11/2023
'EU reform bound to be of interest to the Swiss', an opinion piece in Le Temps on EU Treaties changes by Maria João Rodrigues, FEPS President, Guillaume Klossa, Director of think tank EuropaNova and Daniela Schwarzer, Executive board member Bertelsmann Stiftung

« Le moment est venu de lancer un débat sur la réforme de l’Union européenne »

by Le Monde 22/11/2023
'The time has come to launch a debate on the reform of the European Union', an opinion piece in Le Monde on Eu Treaties changes by Maria João Rodrigues, FEPS President, Guillaume Klossa, Director of think tank EuropaNova and Daniela Schwarzer, Executive board member Bertelsmann Stiftung