A just transition in the Mediterranean

Policy Brief

This policy brief analyses the ongoing reconfiguration of Euro-Mediterranean energy relations resulting from recent geopolitical shocks that have compelled the European Union to weave decarbonisation, energy security and industrial competitiveness into a single strategic agenda. In this context, North Africa has acquired unprecedented prominence as a prospective hub for renewable energy and green hydrogen, and is now positioned to underpin Europe’s diversification efforts.

Yet the emerging cooperation model remains distant from the principles of a just transition, while at the same time being structurally asymmetric: European priorities – securing supplies, stabilising prices, accelerating the green transition and curbing migration flows – tend to override partner countries’ development needs. The result is a set of projects that foster competition among actors in the southern neighbourhood, concentrate benefits within narrow institutional and corporate circuits, and yield limited or negligible improvements in governance, civic participation or equity in wealth distribution.

Through the cases of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, the policy brief shows how large-scale renewable and hydrogen initiatives intersect with domestic constraints such as fossil fuel dependence, high capital costs, limited administrative capacity, acute climate vulnerability and social tensions around land and water use. In addition, export-oriented strategies risk entrenching new forms of dependency while failing to address the structural challenges of energy security and strategic autonomy in the EU’s neighbourhood.

At the same time, the EU’s cooperation model appears insufficiently conflict sensitive, and employment gains are unevenly distributed across social groups, with marked gender imbalances. Ultimately, the analysis argues that without a clearer rebalancing of burdens and benefits, more robust safeguards for affected communities and a deeper alignment with local priorities, Euro- Mediterranean energy cooperation will remain reactive and fragmented, unable to evolve into a genuinely equitable, resilient and transformative partnership over the long term.

This policy brief is part of the FEPS initiative Call to Europe Cyprus 2026, which focused on “A New Strategy for Peace and Cooperation in the Mediterranean“ The event explored a range of issues related to Euro-Mediterranean relations, including the Pact for the Mediterranean, the implications of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East for the Mediterranean region, and democratic resilience in North Africa.