We investigate the interaction between inequality, leverage and financial crises using bivariate Granger causality tests for a sample of 13 European countries and the United States over the period 1975-2013. We also examine the relevance of other determinants of expansions in credit to income and test whether the causal relationships are sensitive to different measures of credit. We find that top income shares significantly affect future credit to income of the private household sector. The test statistics reveal that the effect of top income shares is weaker for bank credit to the private non-financial sector. This is broadly consistent with the notion, that rising (top-end) personal inequality may lead to an increase in the demand for credit by low and middle income households in order to maintain their relative standards of consumption. While results suggest no robust causality relationship from the Gini coefficient to credit, there is evidence for feedback effects from credit to the income distribution. Moreover, we find bidirectional causality relationships between economic activity and credit on the one hand and asset prices and credit on the other which may give rise to mutually reinforcing boom-bust cycles. The monetary policy stance does not seem to be a strong driver of the expansion in credit to income and financial deregulation affects the expansion in credit to income only at the individual country level.
“Trade doesn’t work in isolation from good domestic policies” Interview to Arancha González
by Borderlex 19/09/2023
Interview to Arancha González, former Spanish foreign minister, who released together with FEPS the new book entitled 'The Trade Handbook: Making Trade Work for Prosperity, People and Planet'
A szociális unió imperatívusza
by Új Egyenlőség 09/09/2023
'The imperative of Social Union'. Article about FEPS book 'Europe’s Social Integration: Welfare Models and Economic Transformations' by László Andor.
Após 66 anos de adiamentos, a barragem do Pisão entrou em contra-relógio
by Pùblico 19/08/2023
'After 66 years of postponements, the Pisão dam has entered a race against time' Pùblico's article mentions FEPS Policy Study 'Governing the RRF'
Ukrainian economy and society: whither the (postwar) country?
by Commons 16/06/2023
In Commons' article, Yuliya Yurchenko, co-author of FEPS’ book 'Europe and the war in Ukraine', outlines the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the Ukrainian population and the plans needed for Ukraine's recovery.
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