On 24 February 2022, a large-scale war has returned to Europe. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has eclipsed long-held assumptions about stability and security in Europe. More importantly, following a global pandemic, it underscored that a reactionary EU, which attempts to “muddle through” one crisis after another, will not be able to stand at the forefront of a positive (global) change. The fog of war might cloud prospects for the outcome on the battlefield, but it remains clear that the implications of Russia’s aggression will unfold over many years and affect various aspects of the European and international order. While we can’t predict the future, it is imperative that we anticipate and prepare for the (un)certain

In the context described above, and while continuing to advocate for progressive support and rebuild of Ukraine as a cornerstone of the new peace and security architecture, FEPS remains committed to strategic foresight as an indispensable element of European policymaking. Following the successful flagship research series on strategic autonomy, we commenced high-level seminars in the format of expert roundtable discussions, each addressing the impact of the war in Ukraine on distinct aspects of the international agenda and the global order at large. The foresight exercise addressed the long-term implications of the war for securityenergy and green transitions, as well as trade and global supply chains

Inspired by these expert reflections, we present our latest book ‘Forging Europe’s Leadership’ which provides a timely and essential read for those seeking to understand and shape the path ahead at a critical juncture for European integration. The publication is an “intellectual project of great value” (Enrico Letta) carried out by renowned experts in their fields, who seek to understand the war’s ramifications over the long term, improving our capacity to anticipate them and prepare for possible developments. It represents” a unique tool for thinking about how Europe can deploy its leadership in the face of mounting geopolitical headwinds” (Arancha González Laya), preventing the scenario of a regressive world from unfolding.

Chapters and authors:

  • Geopolitical crossroads: the strategic landscape after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine | Andriy Korniychuk
  • The geopolitics of energy after Russia’s war in Ukraine | Thijs Van de Graaf
  • Overcoming the great fossil fuel shock: building an energy system that serves a free, secure and green Europe | Thomas Pellerin-Carlin
  • The global economic disorder: drifting towards fragmentation | George Papaconstantinou
  • Global trade and investment: the rising economic security paradigm | Elvire Fabry
  • A growing gap between development cooperation and development needs  | Annalisa Prizzon
  • The EU put to the test: fast forward, catching up or lagging behind? | Daniela Schwarzer
  • Conclusion: averting a regressive world – global trends and Europe’s leadership | Giovanni Grevi

Enrico Letta, President of the Jacques Delors Institute and formerly Prime Minister of Italy:

“A thorough and accurate analysis of the war in Ukraine and of its international consequences, with valuable contributions from a range of experts. The book is an intellectual project of great value that sheds light on, and offers interesting insights into, a complex and fundamental issue for the future of the European continent.”

Arancha Gonzalez, Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs and formerly Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation of Spain:

“Forging Europe’s Leadership: Global Trends, Russian Aggression and the Risk of a Regressive World offers a unique tool for thinking about how Europe can deploy its leadership in the face of mounting geopolitical headwinds. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has amplified many trends that are eroding the international order. There is an urgent need to reverse this drift and to empower Europe to withstand competition and promote cooperation.”

Fondation Jean-Jaurès
Karl Renner Institut
Olof Palmes Internationella Center
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