Terra incognita

Foresight series: The long-term implications of the war in Ukraine

Policy Brief

14/02/2023

What are the implications of the war in Ukraine for the different dimensions of international affairs?

The impact of the war is both of urgent relevance and of long-term consequences. Tensions among great powers have risen, geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, the international energy order is being upended, food supply chains have been disrupted, the global economy is facing severe headwinds, fragile countries and regions are being exposed to multiple shocks, and multilateral governance is faltering, as normative disconnects come to the fore.

In this policy brief, Giovanni Grevi argues that the war in Ukraine affects the future in different ways. For one, it has accelerated patterns of change that predated it, including great power competition, middle power activism, and the crisis of multilateralism. For another, Russia’s aggression has introduced major discontinuities, such as triggering a global energy crisis, fracturing the European security order, and sparking nuclear threats by Russia. In addition, the war has diverted the focus from critical challenges, such as sustainable development and climate change, while aggravating these challenges both directly and indirectly.

This policy brief outlines some of the factors that might drive change alongside the ongoing war – factors such as the evolution of the rivalry between the US and China and of the partnership between China and Russia. It also outlines some of the risks facing the global economy, as well as the prospects for the clean energy transition and its strategic implications, and the rising costs of failure to address shared challenges through cooperation.

What lies ahead is terra incognita – a strategic landscape that eludes comparisons with earlier historical phases. While geopolitical competition is nothing new, even if it subsided for a couple of decades, the risks it poses are increased by the fact that it is surging at a time of power transitions and unprecedented economic, technological, and ecological interdependence. However, by tackling geopolitical challenges and managing multi-dimensional competition, while seeking to advance a rules-based international order, leadership can make a decisive difference in determining distinct pathways to the future.

Network
Fondation Jean-Jaurès
Karl Renner Institut
Olof Palmes Internationella Center
Related publications
14/12/2022

War in Ukraine, refugees, inclusion and human mobility

The challenges for a progressive EU policy
14/12/2022

The EU asylum system and the Ukrainian humanitarian crisis

07/12/2022

The Russia-Ukraine war: An inflection point for sustainable energy transitions

04/07/2022

Partnerships and European strategic autonomy

European Strategic Autonomy series - Security & Defense
11/05/2022

Builders of Progress: The war in Ukraine through the eyes of youth

This is the first publication of the research project Builders for Progress
Find all related publications
Publications
24/01/2024

Progressive Yearbook 2024

Looking back to look ahead
13/12/2023

(Re)Building the future

Progressive Ukraine series
06/12/2023

Stronger resilience through cooperation in the Sahel

'12 years of crises in the Sahel' series
13/11/2023

EU Treaties – Why they need targeted changes

An approach based on European public goods, citizenship and democracy
Find all related Progressive Post
Progressive Post
22/02/2024

Ukrainian democracy vs. the Russian war: how to increase resilience

22/02/2024

European integration in wartime: the EU’s imperative to preserve and rejuvenate Ukraine’s democracy

22/02/2024

War economy: how economic policy can help Ukraine win the war

Find all related events
Events
Upcoming
27/02/2024
Online

Preparing Ukraine’s economy for a war of attrition

Beyond the battlefield
Past
24/01/2024
FEPS HQ

Progressive Yearbook launch

29/11/2023
Helsinki, Finland (Hybrid)

From Russia’s aggression to progressive recovery of Ukraine

How to ensure Ukraine’s democratic future?
Find all related news
News
23/02/2024

FEPS mission to Brazil

15/12/2023

FEPS President mission to China

Maria Joao Rodrigues participates in the ‘2023 Understanding China Conference’
22/11/2023

Ann Linde is FEPS’ new Foreign Affairs Special Advisor

14/09/2023

FEPS President at the SDG Summit and United Nations General Assembly in New York

Find all related in the media
In the media

What are Hungary’s conditions for lifting its Ukraine Facility veto?

by Euractiv 12/01/2024
In this episode, Evi Kiorri asks Andriy Korniychuk, policy analyst and expert on Ukraine matters at the Foundation for European Progressive Studies: what are Viktor Orbán's conditions, and why is Hungary considering changing its position?

Une réforme de l’UE qui intéressera forcément les Suisses

by Le Temps 24/11/2023
'EU reform bound to be of interest to the Swiss', an opinion piece in Le Temps on EU Treaties changes by Maria João Rodrigues, FEPS President, Guillaume Klossa, Director of think tank EuropaNova and Daniela Schwarzer, Executive board member Bertelsmann Stiftung

« Le moment est venu de lancer un débat sur la réforme de l’Union européenne »

by Le Monde 22/11/2023
'The time has come to launch a debate on the reform of the European Union', an opinion piece in Le Monde on Eu Treaties changes by Maria João Rodrigues, FEPS President, Guillaume Klossa, Director of think tank EuropaNova and Daniela Schwarzer, Executive board member Bertelsmann Stiftung

A Europa em tempo de guerras

by Público 06/11/2023
'Europe in times of wars'. With two wars unfolding in the European neighbourhood, FEPS President, Maria João Rodrigues, reflects in Público on the EU's capacity to play its role as a major international actor and exert its own strategic autonomy