State of the Unions

One year ahead of the US 2024 elections, eyes are on Washington. The Transatlantic partnership has gained renewed significance since Russia launched its unprovoked assault on Ukraine in February 2022. A full-scale war at the heart of Europe underscored the pivotal role played by the US as a security provider for its European allies and partners. While Brussels and Washington have demonstrated commendable solidarity, the changing peace and security architecture reinvigorated discussions about the sustainability of Europe’s reliance on the US for security assurances. In a global landscape marked by heightened confrontations, such dependence can present formidable challenges. Moreover, Europeans are under no illusion that this support could change after the next election. Thus, injecting an element of uncertainty into the future of transatlantic relations after 2024.

On 15 November 2023, FEPS and the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) brought together leading European and US experts and policymakers for the 6th State of the Unions conference to engage in a critical reflection on what we can expect from the US Presidential race in the coming year and the impact the elections may have on the transatlantic partnership and the collective security across the Atlantic.

The programme was divided into two sessions:

Session 1: DECODING US POLITICS IN 2024: HIGH STAKES, HIGH EXPECTATIONS

Amid a backdrop of post-pandemic recovery, economic uncertainty, social unrest, and geopolitical turbulence, the stakes in the upcoming US elections could not be higher. With the American nation deeply divided, the outcome will significantly shape the trajectory of American governance and its global role in the years to come. Where are we at one year out? What is expected from the Republican race? What impact will developments in Congress have on the race?

Session 2: FORGING TRANSATLANTIC LEADERSHIP: RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AND THE RISK OF A REGRESSIVE WORLD

Russia’s war in Ukraine marks a tipping point and poses a genuine risk of turning a world of relative progress into one of growing volatility and contestation, followed by lasting regression. A renewed commitment to forging transatlantic leadership is necessary to seek effective solutions to mitigate the challenges that are debasing the multilateral order. What is the current state of the transatlantic partnership against the background of a challenging geopolitical landscape? How will the upcoming US elections impact the prospects for forging transatlantic leadership?

Among the speakers:

• László Andor, Secretary General, FEPS
• Louise Langeby, Managing Director, Strategic Convening, GMF
• Belén Martínez Carbonell, Managing Director for Global Agenda and Multilateral Relations, EEAS
• Rachael Dean Wilson, Managing Director, US Politics and Political Analysis, GMF
• Emily Cain, former Executive Director, Emily’s List
• Joe Pounder, CEO, Bullpen Strategy Group
• Ines Pohl, Washington Bureau Chief, Deutsche Welle (DW)
• Giovanni Grevi, Senior Fellow, Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (BSoG-VUB)
• Alena Kudzko, Vice President for Policy and Programming, GLOBSEC
• Jack Thompson, Lecturer, University of Amsterdam

For more information, please contact Thainá Leite, FEPS Project Officer, at thaina.leite@feps-europe.eu.